Keyser Söze wrote:
On 1/8/16 2:13 PM, Califbill wrote:
Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 1/8/2016 1:15 PM, Califbill wrote:
Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 1/8/2016 12:13 PM, wrote:
On Fri, 8 Jan 2016 08:22:49 -0500, Justan Olphart
wrote:
O'Bama's liberals are driving us into the second recession of his ever
so tedious reign as president. Join me in prayer for relief from these
liberal assholes.
I don't think we ever really got out of the last recession. They
dumped massive amounts of federal money into the economy and made it
look better but there is not really much actual growth. The employment
participation rate (the number of actual jobs) is flat since 2007.
It is easy to argue that "middle class" jobs have been going down
since the GHWB administration. That was when the words "down sized"
and "outsourced" entered the lexicon and it was in the Clinton
administration when IBM had it's first layoff ... ever. (including the
depression) That was when we started hearing "offshoring".
That is the elephant in the room nobody will mention. Most of our
growth is in construction and we have already seen that we need to
limit that to need or we end up in a bubble. China is really looking
at that one and their economy is suffering like ours did because they
have so much "built and unsold".
Everyone thinks computers will be the answer but there were more
people making a good living in the computer business in 1980 than
there are now. This is a "cut open the box and plug it in" business
now and that is not a good living. We hear a lot about the
opportunities in software but that is not an opportunity for a lot of
people and those people can be in a boiler room in Bangladesh.
No offense Greg and certainly not an insult but I don't think I have
*ever* known anyone with a more depressing and pessimistic outlook than
that you often express here. One of the strongest pillars of success
is an optimistic approach to a problem or issue, even when the reasons
to remain optimistic seem far and few between.
I made my living in computers for 40 years. Greg is correct. When I
started, we had 36 weeks of school to learn to maintain a mainframe. Plus
additional weeks to learn new peripherals. These were discrete transistor
systems. The NCR-315 computer I started with filled a room, just like an
IBM 1401. 20 years later, the NCR 605 mini controller was released pretty
much a 315 on 4 boards. Integrated circuits. Send out an FE with 4 boards
and he could swap on the system. Now you had 2 weeks training, and 20% of
the manpower requirement. Outsourcing was accelerated by minimum wage /
living wages requirements. We priced our uneducated labor out of the
market. When I worked for Maxtor in the early 90's, cost us $3.50 an hour
fully bundled labor cost to run a headstack assembly factory in Penang,
Malaysia. About $35 here. 10x the cost. In the 60's was probably a 3x
cost factor. Plus in the 50-60's, US high school graduates could actually
read and write and add and subtract. Now we have high wages for minimal
jobs and graduates who are uneducated. Next time you go to a fast food
place, look at the person making change. If American. They struggle. Here
the Mexican worker can even make change if you add a couple cents to round
out the amount. We are in deep **** here. Exorbitant debt we are piling
on our grandkids. And no smokestack industries to employ the majority of
the workers. We pay more to a local bus driver here than to a teacher with
a masters. As to Silicon Valley, they bring in India and China workers for
less than we pay the bus driver. Hyper loop is hype. Governor Brown has
pushed through a high speed rail project for California. Price has.
Already tripled and cost to go to Los Angeles on a subsidized train is
going to be more than buying an airplane ticket.
40 years ago I made a living fixing devices that operated with vacuum
tubes. Not much call for it now other than the occasional guitar amp. :-)
What replaced those jobs? Even a lot of of those Vacuum tubes devices were
repaired via taking the tubes down to local multipurpose store with a tube
tester. We are probably going to,see a massive depression, even without a
religious war being expanded, because we overspend. 40% of our government
spending is borrowed or printed money. We have promised huge pension
dollars to government employees without funding them now like a private
pension would be. Where are the jobs to support this debt we will need to
service? I Think this debt service will be more akin to a bull servicing
a cow, to the public having to pay.
Unfortunately, not that many pensions in the private sector are
properly/fully funded. I served on my local union's pension fund board
for two terms, and our regs then and now required *no*
unfunded/underfunded liabilities, which is the way a pension should be run.
One thing to keep in mind...those right-wing politicians who claim the
government is "after your guns" are the very same politicians who
actually are coming after your Social Security.
Even badly funded private pensions, and even a few underfunded union
pension funds are a hell of a lot more solvent than government pension
funds. Is why Stockton, California declared bankruptcy. As well as
several other major cities wanting to do the same thing. And Social
Security is now considered a retirement plan. When did we fund it enough
to support such? Both parties and independents are going to have
to,address SS in a very short time.