Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
I saw a interesting report on CNBC this afternoon by the Cambridge
Energy Research Association which was startling because after some
statistical analysis, they basically said that production in 2005 in
the Lower 48 in the United States was 66 percent higher than Hubbert
projected.


Which is good.

One thing I have suspected for some time is that the
consumption curve for any vital resource tends to skew one
way or the other. It's the supply/demand thing, but not
necessarily dependent on price.

As oil tends get more expensive, people have less tendency
to expend it profligately. This ratchets down the amount
demanded, and X billion barrels last longer. Then there are
other non-economic downward pressure on demand: growing
public awareness that oil won't last forever, some of the
other negative effects (pollution), substitution of
alternatives, constraints on consumption (how many cars can
you drive at once), etc etc. In looking at demand for U.S.
domestic oil, obviously foreign oil will be substitued for
it under many conditions.

So domestic U.S. is not being used up quite as fast as
Hubbert predicted... good news, but not necessarily a sign
that Hubbert was all wrong.

Remember, I'm not one of the doom-n-gloomers predicting the
end of civilization. I *do* think that the era of cheap
energy is over (until we develop fusion). Unfortunately that
also means that the era of ever-cheaper transport is over.

We are on the brink of some new basic economic paradigms...
finally we'll get to see what comes after the Industrial
Revolution.... or can we pick what's behind Door #3?



I don't know - I just want to get moving in the area of biomass fuels,
diesel/electric technologies and passive generation like solar, wave
and wind.


The country that moves it's energy demand OFF oil
consumption will rule the future economically. That's why
the Japanese fusion project(s) worry me more than North
Korean nukes.


If we can get around the NIMBY crowd that is.

Hell, until it's proven better & cleaner in the long run,
I'm a NIMBY myself.

DSK