East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

Chinese troops lined up for a review by President Bush and China's President
Hu Jintao on Nov. 20 in Beijing (Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP)

The overwhelming assessment by Asian officials, diplomats and analysts is
that the U.S. military simply cannot defeat China. It has been an assessment
relayed to U.S. government officials over the past few months by countries
such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. This comes as President Bush wraps
up a visit to Asia, in which he sought to strengthen U.S. ties with key
allies in the region.

Most Asian officials have expressed their views privately. Tokyo Governor
Shintaro Ishihara has gone public, warning that the United States would lose
any war with China.

"In any case, if tension between the United States and China heightens, if
each side pulls the trigger, though it may not be stretched to nuclear
weapons, and the wider hostilities expand, I believe America cannot win as
it has a civic society that must adhere to the value of respecting lives,"
Mr. Ishihara said in an address to the Washington-based Center for Strategic
and International Studies.

Mr. Ishihara said U.S. ground forces, with the exception of the Marines, are
"extremely incompetent" and would be unable to stem a Chinese conventional
attack. Indeed, he asserted that China would not hesitate to use nuclear
weapons against Asian and American cities-even at the risk of a massive U.S.
retaliation.

The governor said the U.S. military could not counter a wave of millions of
Chinese soldiers prepared to die in any onslaught against U.S. forces. After
2,000 casualties, he said, the U.S. military would be forced to withdraw.

"Therefore, we need to consider other means to counter China," he said. "The
step we should be taking against China, I believe, is economic containment."

Officials acknowledge that Mr. Ishihara's views reflect the widespread
skepticism of U.S. military capabilities in such countries as Australia,
India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. They said the U.S.-led war in Iraq
has pointed to the American weakness in low-tech warfare.

"When we can't even control parts of Anbar, they get the message loud and
clear," an official said, referring to the flashpoint province in western
Iraq.

As a result, Asian allies of the United States are quietly preparing to
bolster their militaries independent of Washington. So far, the Bush
administration has been strongly opposed to an indigenous Japanese defense
capability, fearing it would lead to the expulsion of the U.S. military
presence from that country.

On Nov. 16, Mr. Bush met with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The
two leaders discussed the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan
and Tokyo's troop deployment in Iraq.

During his visit to Washington in early November, Mr. Ishihara met senior
U.S. defense officials. They included talks with U.S. Defense Deputy
Undersecretary for Asian and Pacific Affairs Richard Lawless to discuss the
realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan.

For his part, Mr. Ishihara does not see China as evolving into a stable
democracy with free elections.

"I believe such predictions are totally wrong," Mr. Ishihara said.

"Bob Crantz" wrote in message

East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

Sure it could. All the US would have to do is pull the plug on Chinese
goods, the majority of which go to the USA. China would collapse in
economic ruin within months. g

Max

In article et,
Bob Crantz wrote:
East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

In a conventional war, perhaps that's true. But, why would we even
attempt that? Also, are troops are far from incompetent.



--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

"Jonathan Ganz" wrote in message
...
In article et,
Bob Crantz wrote:
East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

In a conventional war, perhaps that's true. But, why would we even
attempt that? Also, are troops are far from incompetent.

You're right, Jon. Our policy w/r/t the USSR if war broke out in Europe had
been to use tactical nukes from the get-go. The Russian Army greatly
outnumbered ours, both here and in Europe, and so did their number of tanks,
etc. Our only option was to nuke them, and that's likely what we would have
done. Of course it probably would have resulted in WWIII. I have no doubt
that same policy exists w/r/t China. But since China's major source of
trade is with the US, I strongly doubt they'd be inclined to go to war with
us.

Max

"Peter Wiley" wrote in message
. ..
In article et,
Maxprop wrote:

"Bob Crantz" wrote in message

East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

Sure it could. All the US would have to do is pull the plug on Chinese
goods, the majority of which go to the USA. China would collapse in
economic ruin within months. g

Nice theory, except that you'd have to wait, say, 5 years or so to
replace all those imports from somewhere else. Your domestic
manufacturing capacity for consumer goods is, shall we say, minimal?

Minimal may be an overstatement. We've done a fine job of exporting nearly
every manufacturing job short of the high-tech and/or large industrial end
of things. However, a friend, who is an importer of foreign low-tech goods,
tells me that India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and many other SE Asian countries
would dearly love to replace China as our major supplier of such goods.
Mexico, some Central and South American countries continually bid for the
business as well. But it's not so simple as it seems. If we pulled our
low-tech goods production entirely from the Chinese, they'd probably attack
us.

Ditto the patience and attention span of your consumers. How else can
one explain the success of places like Home Depot and Walmart?

Simple, really. Our consumers place little or no value on quality service,
rather choosing low price and one-stop shopping as an alternative. In the
1960s and 70s, small towns and villages across the USA watched as ma & pa
business and shops closed, unable to compete with the K-Marts and other
so-called superstores. Now we're stuck with them and have almost no
alternatives.

Max

OzOne wrote in message ...
On Wed, 23 Nov 2005 18:14:18 +0000, Peter Wiley
scribbled thusly:

In article et,
Maxprop wrote:

"Bob Crantz" wrote in message

East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

Sure it could. All the US would have to do is pull the plug on Chinese
goods, the majority of which go to the USA. China would collapse in
economic ruin within months. g

Nice theory, except that you'd have to wait, say, 5 years or so to
replace all those imports from somewhere else. Your domestic
manufacturing capacity for consumer goods is, shall we say, minimal?

Ditto the patience and attention span of your consumers. How else can
one explain the success of places like Home Depot and Walmart?

PDW

And where would they get the chips for their weapons systems :-)

If you mean where would the US get such chips--those are produced here.
That the designs have been stolen and replicated elsewhere has little or no
effect upon our ability to make smart weapons.

Max

In article et,
Maxprop wrote:

"Bob Crantz" wrote in message

East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

Sure it could. All the US would have to do is pull the plug on Chinese
goods, the majority of which go to the USA. China would collapse in
economic ruin within months. g

Nice theory, except that you'd have to wait, say, 5 years or so to
replace all those imports from somewhere else. Your domestic
manufacturing capacity for consumer goods is, shall we say, minimal?

Ditto the patience and attention span of your consumers. How else can
one explain the success of places like Home Depot and Walmart?

PDW

Do they have a McDonals restaurant (I use that word advisedly) in China? If
that's the case, then there won't be a war. I've heard that whenever both
countries have those places, they never fight each other!

--
"j" ganz @@
www.sailnow.com

"Maxprop" wrote in message
nk.net...

"Jonathan Ganz" wrote in message
...
In article et,
Bob Crantz wrote:
East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

In a conventional war, perhaps that's true. But, why would we even
attempt that? Also, are troops are far from incompetent.

You're right, Jon. Our policy w/r/t the USSR if war broke out in Europe
had been to use tactical nukes from the get-go. The Russian Army greatly
outnumbered ours, both here and in Europe, and so did their number of
tanks, etc. Our only option was to nuke them, and that's likely what we
would have done. Of course it probably would have resulted in WWIII. I
have no doubt that same policy exists w/r/t China. But since China's
major source of trade is with the US, I strongly doubt they'd be inclined
to go to war with us.

Max

OzOne wrote in message ...
On Wed, 23 Nov 2005 16:59:14 GMT, "Maxprop"
scribbled thusly:

If you mean where would the US get such chips--those are produced here.
That the designs have been stolen and replicated elsewhere has little or
no
effect upon our ability to make smart weapons.

Max


Stolen designs?

Indeed. Virtually every Intel microprocessor and ancillary MS microchip is
being produced today in the PRC, and not under license from MS or Intel.
Same goes for DVDs, music CDs, etc. The Chinese have a long standing
reputation for pirating technology and software.

You think that China has no people capable of designing microchips?

I've no doubt they do. Did I imply otherwise?

Max

"Capt. JG" wrote in message
...

Do they have a McDonals

Was this a Freudian slip, Jon, or were you implying a fast-food joint
selling mutton stew and Irish beer?

restaurant (I use that word advisedly) in China? If that's the case, then
there won't be a war. I've heard that whenever both countries have those
places, they never fight each other!

Never heard that one. I guess we can conclude that Iraq didn't have any
McDonalds.

Max