If you could see it you would have 16 1/2 hours (and if it was only
moving at 10 knots - that's pretty slow for a thunderstorm). The
point is - typical visibility at the surface is 7 to 10 miles on a
very clear day. With summer haze it is frequently much less than
that. If the storm moves 20 miles an hour (not all that fast for a
thunderstorm), 10 mile visibility gives me 1/2 hour. Moving at 6
knots, I can move my boat a little over three miles in that 1/2 hour.

Eric

(JAXAshby) wrote in message ...
yeah, right. at 165 nm way an 10 knots speed it will only take 16-1/2 hours
for a thunderstorm to get to you. FAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR too quickly
for you react. You really should buy a cell phone to tell you that a storm is
on its way and may hit you sometime tomorrown afternoon.

Gosh, maybe I need new glasses - when I'm in the Bay off Annapolis, I
just can't see those clouds over Morgantown, West Virginia - a mere
165 nm away.

In fact, from the top of Old Rag mountain at over 3200 feet, most days
I can't make out Washington, D.C. a mere 70 miles away (needless to
say, I don't do this in a sailboat).

Maybe I need Lasik!

Eric

(JAXAshby) wrote in message
...
There are lots of places where people sail and it's difficult to see a
thunderstorm coming

bull****. Thunderstorm clouds go as high as 60,000 feet sometimes, which
means
they can be seen up to 300 nm away. Even 10,000 foot high clouds can be
seen
up to 122 nm away. Can't see that coming?

And there are many places where the potential
exists every day in the summer

thunderstorms don't form inside of 30 seconds. You *KNOW* they are coming,
if
one just pays attention.

Brian:

You are right, I don't know why I bother!

Eric

Brian Whatcott wrote in message . ..
On 31 Jan 2004 08:51:40 -0800, (Eric) wrote:
Don't expect to recognize a towering cu-nim anvil at 300 nm from a low
blip on the horizon on a crystal clear day,
In fact try not to argue with fools, as a general rule.

Brian Whatcott

Your trig may be correct as far as the altitude is concerned but
practically speaking, you can rarely see anything 300 nm away.

I would agree they don't tend to come up on you in 10 minutes but it
may take a lot longer than 10 minutes to get to a safe
harbor/dock/anchorage.

Eric

Brian:

You are right, I don't know why I bother!

Eric

Brian Whatcott wrote in message . ..
On 31 Jan 2004 08:51:40 -0800, (Eric) wrote:
Don't expect to recognize a towering cu-nim anvil at 300 nm from a low
blip on the horizon on a crystal clear day,
In fact try not to argue with fools, as a general rule.

Brian Whatcott

Your trig may be correct as far as the altitude is concerned but
practically speaking, you can rarely see anything 300 nm away.

I would agree they don't tend to come up on you in 10 minutes but it
may take a lot longer than 10 minutes to get to a safe
harbor/dock/anchorage.

Eric

Climate is very different as you move a bit further South. There is
good likelihood of thunderstorms every day for most of the summer.
Staying off the water when NWS says there's a chance of thunderstorms
means you don't sail at all in the summer.

Also, the temperature and humidity make visibility very different.

Eric

(JAXAshby) wrote in message ...
a.) I spent 3-1/2 decades living in the Upper Midwest, which included
uncountable times on boats on lakes from small to large. I know afternoon
thunderstorms, and NEVER saw one "suddenly" hit. Even 8 year old kids knew
when a thunderstorm was likely to hit, and

b.) I sail Long Island Sound and thunderstorms are more frequent at certain
times than other times. However, I have NEVER seen a thunderstorm develop I
didn't know was coming. Now, I have seen other sailors out there who didn't
know a thunderstorm _might_ be coming (a lot of blind as a bat sailors out
there) but still NEVER saw a thunderstorm "suddenly" hit without warning.
Again, I have seen sailors totally ignorant but that doesn't mean the signs
weren't there. They just weren't paying attention. In fact, they seemed to be
purposely not paying attention.

perhaps the cell phone radar is the phone company's way of relieving ignorant
sailors of the money in their wallets. A cell phone that says, "See those dark
clouds roiling over there? That is a thunderstorm, dummy".

Sailing on inland waterways, you don't have the long range visibility
you have on the open ocean, combine that with the haze that hangs over
many southern areas in the summer and a thunderstorm can approach (not
form) very quickly. They frequently can move at 20 to 30 miles per
hour. Cells are frequently isolated and small so having accurate
up-to-date information about their location and direction of travel
can be very helpful. It's not a substitute for being aware of one's
surroundings but it's a potentially useful tool.

As for not going out at all when thunderstorms are forecast - you
wouldn't do much sailing on the Chesapeake Bay in the summer because
that's the typical forecast for every afternoon in the summer.

Eric

(JAXAshby) wrote in message
...
you're right, eric. on lake norman thunderstorms form in less than 8
minutes,
in absolutely clear skies, with no warning whatsoever.

but *if* what you say is true, eric, what good would a cell phone radar do
you?
Huh?


Ever been to Lake Norman? I have, I used to work a few miles from
there. Do you know anything about the terrain?

Eric

(JAXAshby) wrote in message
...
eric, that is a newspaper story, and has much to do with what actually
happened
as any other news story. Weather just does not and can not develop that
quickly. Besides you can tell the reporter was fictionalizing when s/he
slipped in that part about

Few of the participants
noticed an area of dark sky emerging behind them

you also can tell that by

blasted by a wall of water

huh? what "wall of water" is that?

most of the rest of the rhetoric in the story is the reporter "adding
drama",
as the phrase goes in journalism school.

as far as the rest of that goes, one day a few years ago four people
died
in a
thunderstorm in the waters I normally sail when a thunderstorm came
through
packing 90+ knots of wind. Many boats on the water damaged.

My boat was not. Why? because I didnt go out that day knowing full well
the
chances of very high winds. I expected the high winds about 2:00, and
they
hit
about 4:00.

This ain't rocket science. Those dark clouds mean *something* and if
they
are
traveling to the north of you you might be in for a bit of trouble.
Plan
for
it.

And being out in potential storm conditions in a lightweight racing boat
means
you have to keep your eyes open.

buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, if it makes you feel better carry a baby
blanket
and a binky.

The storm
On May 6, 1989 around 1:00 p.m., 93 sailboats were underway in a large
regatta on Lake Norman. By all accounts it was a "bluebird day" -- no
clouds, medium-heavy breeze (12-18 knots). A perfect day for a
sailboat race.

While the NOAA forecast had called for possible thunderstorms late
that afternoon, no one expected severe weather.

At about 12:30, NOAA issued a "microburst warning" for the area. By
then, the regatta was well underway. Everyone was watching their sail
trim and their competitors.

Most of the fleet was on a long down-wind leg. Few of the participants
noticed an area of dark sky emerging behind them. Ten minutes later,
the fleet was blasted by a wall of water and winds officially clocked
at 64 â_" 78 knots.

* Two sailors drowned.
* Nineteen sailors were swept overboard and had to be rescued.
* Four boats sank.
* Sixty-two boats were substantially damaged.

On Lake Norman -- a nice scenic inland lake (sound familiar??), two
and one-half hours from SML.

Survivors described the conditions thusly:

* "A wall of grayâ_"30 feet above the water, roaring towards us."
* "The lake itself seemed to be lifted from its bed."
* "A mixture of lake water, rain, and hail blew like a firehose."
* "Seven foot waves broke over the banks."

One sailor, suddenly aware of the storm, tried to drop his sails, but
the sudden heavy pressure locked the halyards. He was knocked down
with shredded sails. Another sailor tried to secure his companionway
during a knockdown, but water was already pouring in the cabin. His
boat sank.

Many boats were either demasted or lost sails.

Climate is very different as you move a bit further South. There is
good likelihood of thunderstorms every day for most of the summer.
Staying off the water when NWS says there's a chance of thunderstorms
means you don't sail at all in the summer.

Also, the temperature and humidity make visibility very different.

Eric

(JAXAshby) wrote in message ...
a.) I spent 3-1/2 decades living in the Upper Midwest, which included
uncountable times on boats on lakes from small to large. I know afternoon
thunderstorms, and NEVER saw one "suddenly" hit. Even 8 year old kids knew
when a thunderstorm was likely to hit, and

b.) I sail Long Island Sound and thunderstorms are more frequent at certain
times than other times. However, I have NEVER seen a thunderstorm develop I
didn't know was coming. Now, I have seen other sailors out there who didn't
know a thunderstorm _might_ be coming (a lot of blind as a bat sailors out
there) but still NEVER saw a thunderstorm "suddenly" hit without warning.
Again, I have seen sailors totally ignorant but that doesn't mean the signs
weren't there. They just weren't paying attention. In fact, they seemed to be
purposely not paying attention.

perhaps the cell phone radar is the phone company's way of relieving ignorant
sailors of the money in their wallets. A cell phone that says, "See those dark
clouds roiling over there? That is a thunderstorm, dummy".

Sailing on inland waterways, you don't have the long range visibility
you have on the open ocean, combine that with the haze that hangs over
many southern areas in the summer and a thunderstorm can approach (not
form) very quickly. They frequently can move at 20 to 30 miles per
hour. Cells are frequently isolated and small so having accurate
up-to-date information about their location and direction of travel
can be very helpful. It's not a substitute for being aware of one's
surroundings but it's a potentially useful tool.

As for not going out at all when thunderstorms are forecast - you
wouldn't do much sailing on the Chesapeake Bay in the summer because
that's the typical forecast for every afternoon in the summer.

Eric

(JAXAshby) wrote in message
...
you're right, eric. on lake norman thunderstorms form in less than 8
minutes,
in absolutely clear skies, with no warning whatsoever.

but *if* what you say is true, eric, what good would a cell phone radar do
you?
Huh?


Ever been to Lake Norman? I have, I used to work a few miles from
there. Do you know anything about the terrain?

Eric

(JAXAshby) wrote in message
...
eric, that is a newspaper story, and has much to do with what actually
happened
as any other news story. Weather just does not and can not develop that
quickly. Besides you can tell the reporter was fictionalizing when s/he
slipped in that part about

Few of the participants
noticed an area of dark sky emerging behind them

you also can tell that by

blasted by a wall of water

huh? what "wall of water" is that?

most of the rest of the rhetoric in the story is the reporter "adding
drama",
as the phrase goes in journalism school.

as far as the rest of that goes, one day a few years ago four people
died
in a
thunderstorm in the waters I normally sail when a thunderstorm came
through
packing 90+ knots of wind. Many boats on the water damaged.

My boat was not. Why? because I didnt go out that day knowing full well
the
chances of very high winds. I expected the high winds about 2:00, and
they
hit
about 4:00.

This ain't rocket science. Those dark clouds mean *something* and if
they
are
traveling to the north of you you might be in for a bit of trouble.
Plan
for
it.

And being out in potential storm conditions in a lightweight racing boat
means
you have to keep your eyes open.

buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, if it makes you feel better carry a baby
blanket
and a binky.

The storm
On May 6, 1989 around 1:00 p.m., 93 sailboats were underway in a large
regatta on Lake Norman. By all accounts it was a "bluebird day" -- no
clouds, medium-heavy breeze (12-18 knots). A perfect day for a
sailboat race.

While the NOAA forecast had called for possible thunderstorms late
that afternoon, no one expected severe weather.

At about 12:30, NOAA issued a "microburst warning" for the area. By
then, the regatta was well underway. Everyone was watching their sail
trim and their competitors.

Most of the fleet was on a long down-wind leg. Few of the participants
noticed an area of dark sky emerging behind them. Ten minutes later,
the fleet was blasted by a wall of water and winds officially clocked
at 64 â_" 78 knots.

* Two sailors drowned.
* Nineteen sailors were swept overboard and had to be rescued.
* Four boats sank.
* Sixty-two boats were substantially damaged.

On Lake Norman -- a nice scenic inland lake (sound familiar??), two
and one-half hours from SML.

Survivors described the conditions thusly:

* "A wall of grayâ_"30 feet above the water, roaring towards us."
* "The lake itself seemed to be lifted from its bed."
* "A mixture of lake water, rain, and hail blew like a firehose."
* "Seven foot waves broke over the banks."

One sailor, suddenly aware of the storm, tried to drop his sails, but
the sudden heavy pressure locked the halyards. He was knocked down
with shredded sails. Another sailor tried to secure his companionway
during a knockdown, but water was already pouring in the cabin. His
boat sank.

Many boats were either demasted or lost sails.

gee, that Jax, he knows it all!

What a guy!

gee, that Jax, he knows it all!

What a guy!

Jax, you have been on a boat,,, at least once,, right?

Jax, you have been on a boat,,, at least once,, right?

eric, it seems you have seen just two thunderstorms in your life, and one of
them came "unexpectedly".

Trust me, eric, thunderstorms don't just "happen". I doubt I have been
surprised by one since I was 8 years old.

If you could see it you would have 16 1/2 hours (and if it was only
moving at 10 knots - that's pretty slow for a thunderstorm). The
point is - typical visibility at the surface is 7 to 10 miles on a
very clear day. With summer haze it is frequently much less than
that. If the storm moves 20 miles an hour (not all that fast for a
thunderstorm), 10 mile visibility gives me 1/2 hour. Moving at 6
knots, I can move my boat a little over three miles in that 1/2 hour.

Eric

(JAXAshby) wrote in message
...
yeah, right. at 165 nm way an 10 knots speed it will only take 16-1/2
hours
for a thunderstorm to get to you. FAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR too
quickly
for you react. You really should buy a cell phone to tell you that a storm
is
on its way and may hit you sometime tomorrown afternoon.

Gosh, maybe I need new glasses - when I'm in the Bay off Annapolis, I
just can't see those clouds over Morgantown, West Virginia - a mere
165 nm away.

In fact, from the top of Old Rag mountain at over 3200 feet, most days
I can't make out Washington, D.C. a mere 70 miles away (needless to
say, I don't do this in a sailboat).

Maybe I need Lasik!

Eric

(JAXAshby) wrote in message
...
There are lots of places where people sail and it's difficult to see a
thunderstorm coming

bull****. Thunderstorm clouds go as high as 60,000 feet sometimes,
which
means
they can be seen up to 300 nm away. Even 10,000 foot high clouds can be
seen
up to 122 nm away. Can't see that coming?

And there are many places where the potential
exists every day in the summer

thunderstorms don't form inside of 30 seconds. You *KNOW* they are
coming,
if
one just pays attention.