Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting.



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"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...

Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting.




Yeah. Arrived here at the house in Florida yesterday with the Scout safely
in tow. I expected to be battening down the hatches. Now it seems it may
be more of threat further up the coast, maybe even Cape Cod. Might have to
go north again to secure the house and boats.

Eisboch

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting.

Shades of Hugo.

Bert

Yes, our grandkids are on the coast of Florida below Cape Canaveral?

--
Bill Kiene

Kiene's Fly Shop
Sacramento, CA
www.kiene.com

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting.



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http://maps.wunderground.com/data/im...00313_5day.gif

WTNT43 KNHC 130843
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED. DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN
TO 935 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS ARE 139 KNOTS. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 130 KNOTS AND THIS IS PROBABLY ON THE
HIGH SIDE. THE RECON ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF TWO CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS OF 25 AND 35 NMI AND A BAND OF MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EACH EYEWALL...RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS NO SKILL IN PREDICTING IF
THE CURRENT EYEWALL CYCLE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING OR IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION. BEST BET IS TO INDICATE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A WEAKENING
TREND DUE TO COOLER SSTS OR SHEAR THEREAFTER. NEVERTHERELESS...
ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY ERODING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD.
THIS EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTROL HOW CLOSE ISABEL
APPROACHES THE U.S EAST COAST.

HIGH UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE AT LONGER RANGE. THE CONSISTENT AND
GOOD PERFORMER UK MODEL HAS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RELIABLE
GFDL TURNS ISABEL NORTHWARD IN FIVE DAYS AT A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY
FROM THE U.S EAST COAST. BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD SO
FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. AT THIS
TIME...I WOULD NOT EVEN DISCUSS THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE HURRICANE
EASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS IN THE LATEST 00Z RUN AND
ISABEL IS ALREADY WEST OF 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER...THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN PROVIDED BY THE GFS IS QUITE REASONABLE.

NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT
EVER REACH FLORIDA. BRIAN NEED NOT WORRY ABOUT HIS HAT.

FORECASTER AVILA



"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting.



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Bill Kiene wrote:

Yes, our grandkids are on the coast of Florida below Cape Canaveral?


Doesn't appear that this one will be hitting Florida.



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Bill Kiene wrote:

Yes, our grandkids are on the coast of Florida below Cape Canaveral?


From Accuweather:

Hurricane Isabel has weakened a bit, but still remains a very powerful
hurricane moving westward across the Atlantic Ocean. As of 11:00 a.m.
AST Saturday morning, the center of Isabel was located near 22.2 north
and 61.5 west, or about 405 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.
The maximum sustained winds have held from 5:00 a.m. at 150 mph with
gusts to 185 mph. This is a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane
scale. Isabel remained a Category 5 storm for 42 consecutive hours. The
record is held by Hurricane Dog in 1950, which stayed at Category 5
strength for 60 consecutive hours. *&*However, forecast models suggest
that Isabel can become a Cat 5 hurricane again later Saturday
afternoon.** The eyewall has improved again Saturday morning. Isabel is
moving to the west at around 10 mph, and this general track is expected
to continue for the next 24 hours. An eyewall replacement cycle has
taken place, and this may be a sign that the storm will re-strengthen;
if that eyewall contracts, the pressure will fall again. The forecasting
of weakening and strengthening of a hurricane is very difficult, and
most attempts are unsuccessful. The hurricane will cross the path that
Hurricane Fabian took several days ago. The water stirred up by Fabian
is cooler, and that cooler water over several miles could also cause
Isabel to weaken some. This weakening process might allow the hurricane
to react to the weakness in the Atlantic high pressure ridge to the
north, allowing a more west-northwest track later in the day. This track
and forward speed mean Isabel will pass north of the Leeward Islands
Saturday and pass well north of Puerto Rico overnight. The hurricane
should be north of the Dominican Republic by early Monday. On Tuesday,
we expect it located east of the Bahamas. The main synoptic features
that will play a role in the track of Isabel are the Western Atlantic
high pressure ridge now nosing into New England and an upper-level
trough that will approach the eastern U.S. late in the weekend and early
next week. A weakening of the Western Atlantic ridge in the next couple
of days will cause the hurricane to move on a west-northwest and even
northwest track. If the ridge does not weaken, the storm will probably
track farther south. Either way, Isabel is still several days away from
affecting the U.S. mainland. The area of low pressure from the remnants
of Tropical Storm Henri is moving into northeasternmost North Carolina
Saturday morning. With high pressure off New England, the low will
continue to move northward. This feature was unable to get re-organized
into a tropical system. However, there will be gale nor'easter
conditions along the Middle Atlantic coast Saturday. (ie: wind, rain and
pounding of beaches). A tropical wave is located along 92 west, south of
20 north Saturday. This system is causing showers and thunderstorms to
fire up in the southern Bay of Campeche. In the eastern Atlantic, a
tropical wave is located along 41 west, south of 20 north. Weak surface
winds make this feature very hard to find. Another tropical wave is
positioned over the Cape Verde Islands along 23 west and south of 18
north with scattered convection.



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snip

NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT
EVER REACH FLORIDA. BRIAN NEED NOT WORRY ABOUT HIS HAT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Can anybody guess who Brian is?

On Sat, 13 Sep 2003 07:51:54 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote:

Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting.

I'm watching it intently since my boat is on the Jersey shore.
Unfortunately, by the time I know for sure whether I'll have to evacuate
it, it'll be too late. I'm definitely NOT going to get caught sailing
up the Delaware Bay in a cat 5 hurricane.

It was already damaged in a storm a few weeks ago when the finger pier
broke and let the boat wrap itself up against the metal piling. Luckily
all it did was destroy the bow rail. A direct or even close hit from
Isabel and I can probably kiss the boat goodbye. The storm that broke
the finger pier was only around 60mph winds.

Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the
South Jersey or Philadelphia area?

Steve

WTNT43 KNHC 140839
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 700 MB PEAK WINDS
OF 148 AND 143 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...RESPECTIVELY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 135 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE
BUT ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 140 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE
SPECTACULAR WITH A DISTINCT EYE AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN ISABEL WITH AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 140
KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC SINCE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS A
SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE U.S EAST COAST AND WEAKENS THE STEERING
CURRENTS. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS GONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD AND ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...DANGEROUS ISABEL WILL BE
NEARING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH
UNANIMOUSLY BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR
5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNS
CONSENSUS WHICH HAS HAD A VERY LOW ERROR SO FAR.

FORECASTER AVILA

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting.



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