Good day to read a book or argue with Harry on rec.boats. :-)

Raw and cold out. 63 degrees. (Fahrenheit for Don)

Getting bands of heavy rain and wind from the remnants of Jose.
Some of the gusts are pretty strong but certainly not the likes
of what you guys in Florida experienced.

Puerto Rico is getting slammed by Maria. It's interesting that for an
island in the tropics, they haven't been directly hit by a Cat 4 or 5
hurricane in 100 years. I remember when we bought the house in Florida.
People told me that the Jupiter area had not had a direct hurricane hit
also in 100 years. So, we bought the house and had three of them in 14
months.

Weather guessers up here have all eyes on Maria. The long range
spaghetti models, including the Euro and GFS models have it staying
offshore on the east coast but possibly wacking right into Cape Cod and
southeast MA. According to the forecasters, Maria's ultimate track
depends a lot on what Jose ends up doing and how long it meanders around
off the MA coastline.

On Wednesday, 20 September 2017 14:58:46 UTC-3, Mr. Luddite wrote:
Good day to read a book or argue with Harry on rec.boats. :-)

Raw and cold out. 63 degrees. (Fahrenheit for Don)

Getting bands of heavy rain and wind from the remnants of Jose.
Some of the gusts are pretty strong but certainly not the likes
of what you guys in Florida experienced.

Puerto Rico is getting slammed by Maria. It's interesting that for an
island in the tropics, they haven't been directly hit by a Cat 4 or 5
hurricane in 100 years. I remember when we bought the house in Florida.
People told me that the Jupiter area had not had a direct hurricane hit
also in 100 years. So, we bought the house and had three of them in 14
months.

Weather guessers up here have all eyes on Maria. The long range
spaghetti models, including the Euro and GFS models have it staying
offshore on the east coast but possibly wacking right into Cape Cod and
southeast MA. According to the forecasters, Maria's ultimate track
depends a lot on what Jose ends up doing and how long it meanders around
off the MA coastline.

We had a fair bit of rain earlier today thanks to Jose.
Thanks for keeping him down your way until he fizzled out.

On Wed, 20 Sep 2017 13:58:38 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:


Good day to read a book or argue with Harry on rec.boats. :-)

Raw and cold out. 63 degrees. (Fahrenheit for Don)

Getting bands of heavy rain and wind from the remnants of Jose.
Some of the gusts are pretty strong but certainly not the likes
of what you guys in Florida experienced.

Puerto Rico is getting slammed by Maria. It's interesting that for an
island in the tropics, they haven't been directly hit by a Cat 4 or 5
hurricane in 100 years. I remember when we bought the house in Florida.
People told me that the Jupiter area had not had a direct hurricane hit
also in 100 years. So, we bought the house and had three of them in 14
months.

Weather guessers up here have all eyes on Maria. The long range
spaghetti models, including the Euro and GFS models have it staying
offshore on the east coast but possibly wacking right into Cape Cod and
southeast MA. According to the forecasters, Maria's ultimate track
depends a lot on what Jose ends up doing and how long it meanders around
off the MA coastline.


Actually NGX2 (european model) has it going into Richmond right now.
http://www.nbc-2.com/category/170825...ricane-tracker
(go down to the command line at the bottom of the map and click
spaghetti)
I agree that until they figure out what Jose is doing, this is blindly
throwing darts. You have 2 competing models feeding off each other and
Jose has been spinning in circles for over a week.

On 9/21/2017 2:14 AM, wrote:
On Wed, 20 Sep 2017 13:58:38 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:


Good day to read a book or argue with Harry on rec.boats. :-)

Raw and cold out. 63 degrees. (Fahrenheit for Don)

Getting bands of heavy rain and wind from the remnants of Jose.
Some of the gusts are pretty strong but certainly not the likes
of what you guys in Florida experienced.

Puerto Rico is getting slammed by Maria. It's interesting that for an
island in the tropics, they haven't been directly hit by a Cat 4 or 5
hurricane in 100 years. I remember when we bought the house in Florida.
People told me that the Jupiter area had not had a direct hurricane hit
also in 100 years. So, we bought the house and had three of them in 14
months.

Weather guessers up here have all eyes on Maria. The long range
spaghetti models, including the Euro and GFS models have it staying
offshore on the east coast but possibly wacking right into Cape Cod and
southeast MA. According to the forecasters, Maria's ultimate track
depends a lot on what Jose ends up doing and how long it meanders around
off the MA coastline.


Actually NGX2 (european model) has it going into Richmond right now.
http://www.nbc-2.com/category/170825...ricane-tracker
(go down to the command line at the bottom of the map and click
spaghetti)
I agree that until they figure out what Jose is doing, this is blindly
throwing darts. You have 2 competing models feeding off each other and
Jose has been spinning in circles for over a week.



That's a confusing map. Whatever model "TABS" is seems to originate out
of nowhere and shows something hitting South Carolina somewhere near
Charleston. The latest NOAA forecast indicates a model consensus that
Maria will stay well off shore and make a turn to the east, missing the
USA completely. Of course, that could change again tomorrow. I liken
forecasting the direction a hurricane will take to putting a small blob
of mercury on a glass plate. Doesn't take much external influence on
that plate to make the mercury move in different directions.

On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 07:40:46 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 9/21/2017 2:14 AM, wrote:
On Wed, 20 Sep 2017 13:58:38 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:


Good day to read a book or argue with Harry on rec.boats. :-)

Raw and cold out. 63 degrees. (Fahrenheit for Don)

Getting bands of heavy rain and wind from the remnants of Jose.
Some of the gusts are pretty strong but certainly not the likes
of what you guys in Florida experienced.

Puerto Rico is getting slammed by Maria. It's interesting that for an
island in the tropics, they haven't been directly hit by a Cat 4 or 5
hurricane in 100 years. I remember when we bought the house in Florida.
People told me that the Jupiter area had not had a direct hurricane hit
also in 100 years. So, we bought the house and had three of them in 14
months.

Weather guessers up here have all eyes on Maria. The long range
spaghetti models, including the Euro and GFS models have it staying
offshore on the east coast but possibly wacking right into Cape Cod and
southeast MA. According to the forecasters, Maria's ultimate track
depends a lot on what Jose ends up doing and how long it meanders around
off the MA coastline.


Actually NGX2 (european model) has it going into Richmond right now.
http://www.nbc-2.com/category/170825...ricane-tracker
(go down to the command line at the bottom of the map and click
spaghetti)
I agree that until they figure out what Jose is doing, this is blindly
throwing darts. You have 2 competing models feeding off each other and
Jose has been spinning in circles for over a week.



That's a confusing map. Whatever model "TABS" is seems to originate out
of nowhere and shows something hitting South Carolina somewhere near
Charleston. The latest NOAA forecast indicates a model consensus that
Maria will stay well off shore and make a turn to the east, missing the
USA completely. Of course, that could change again tomorrow. I liken
forecasting the direction a hurricane will take to putting a small blob
of mercury on a glass plate. Doesn't take much external influence on
that plate to make the mercury move in different directions.


I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100%
going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over
us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the
eye wall hitting within minutes of being right.

On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:09:52 -0400, wrote:

On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 07:40:46 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 9/21/2017 2:14 AM, wrote:
On Wed, 20 Sep 2017 13:58:38 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:


Good day to read a book or argue with Harry on rec.boats. :-)

Raw and cold out. 63 degrees. (Fahrenheit for Don)

Getting bands of heavy rain and wind from the remnants of Jose.
Some of the gusts are pretty strong but certainly not the likes
of what you guys in Florida experienced.

Puerto Rico is getting slammed by Maria. It's interesting that for an
island in the tropics, they haven't been directly hit by a Cat 4 or 5
hurricane in 100 years. I remember when we bought the house in Florida.
People told me that the Jupiter area had not had a direct hurricane hit
also in 100 years. So, we bought the house and had three of them in 14
months.

Weather guessers up here have all eyes on Maria. The long range
spaghetti models, including the Euro and GFS models have it staying
offshore on the east coast but possibly wacking right into Cape Cod and
southeast MA. According to the forecasters, Maria's ultimate track
depends a lot on what Jose ends up doing and how long it meanders around
off the MA coastline.


Actually NGX2 (european model) has it going into Richmond right now.
http://www.nbc-2.com/category/170825...ricane-tracker
(go down to the command line at the bottom of the map and click
spaghetti)
I agree that until they figure out what Jose is doing, this is blindly
throwing darts. You have 2 competing models feeding off each other and
Jose has been spinning in circles for over a week.



That's a confusing map. Whatever model "TABS" is seems to originate out
of nowhere and shows something hitting South Carolina somewhere near
Charleston. The latest NOAA forecast indicates a model consensus that
Maria will stay well off shore and make a turn to the east, missing the
USA completely. Of course, that could change again tomorrow. I liken
forecasting the direction a hurricane will take to putting a small blob
of mercury on a glass plate. Doesn't take much external influence on
that plate to make the mercury move in different directions.


I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100%
going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over
us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the
eye wall hitting within minutes of being right.


===

The problem with forecasting the Irma track was getting the timing
right for the turn northward. Even a small error created a
substantial lateral shift because of the geometry.

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com

On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:35:26 -0400,
wrote:

On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:09:52 -0400, wrote:

I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100%
going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over
us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the
eye wall hitting within minutes of being right.


===

The problem with forecasting the Irma track was getting the timing
right for the turn northward. Even a small error created a
substantial lateral shift because of the geometry.

That is always the issue. If these things just went on a straight
line, it would be easy to predict where they go ;-)

Jose has been about the screwiest one I have seen for a while and
Maria may be running through the same confused air.
The water up north is cool enough so this will not be a major storm,
even if they take a hit but it doesn't take a major storm to affect a
lot of people. Sandy was just a strong tropical storm at landfall. A
day of "inch an hour" rain would flood places full of people who never
thought they could flood. That was what Agnes did to us in Clinton and
that was only about 6-8" of rain in a day. It just could not drain
away fast enough in upland communities.

On 9/21/2017 7:28 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:35:26 -0400,
wrote:

On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:09:52 -0400, wrote:

I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100%
going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over
us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the
eye wall hitting within minutes of being right.


===

The problem with forecasting the Irma track was getting the timing
right for the turn northward. Even a small error created a
substantial lateral shift because of the geometry.

That is always the issue. If these things just went on a straight
line, it would be easy to predict where they go ;-)

Jose has been about the screwiest one I have seen for a while and
Maria may be running through the same confused air.
The water up north is cool enough so this will not be a major storm,
even if they take a hit but it doesn't take a major storm to affect a
lot of people. Sandy was just a strong tropical storm at landfall. A
day of "inch an hour" rain would flood places full of people who never
thought they could flood. That was what Agnes did to us in Clinton and
that was only about 6-8" of rain in a day. It just could not drain
away fast enough in upland communities.



Just woke up and we are still be hit with strong wind gusts and rain
squalls from Jose. Haven't checked the weather map yet be it obviously
hasn't moved much in three days.

As for hurricane tracking in general, it's still a guessing game but
there's also no question that the weather people have become much better
at forecasting a general track, given all the influences. I was
watching the Weather Channel the other day and they were talking about
the two prime computer models they use ... GFS and Euro. The Euro has
had a much better record of being accurate. One of them (forget which)
underwent a major update a year or so ago and it was noticed that the
update made the software more inaccurate than the original. They went
back to using the original.

On Friday, 22 September 2017 06:29:18 UTC-3, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 9/21/2017 7:28 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:35:26 -0400,
wrote:

On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:09:52 -0400, wrote:

I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100%
going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over
us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the
eye wall hitting within minutes of being right.


===

The problem with forecasting the Irma track was getting the timing
right for the turn northward. Even a small error created a
substantial lateral shift because of the geometry.

That is always the issue. If these things just went on a straight
line, it would be easy to predict where they go ;-)

Jose has been about the screwiest one I have seen for a while and
Maria may be running through the same confused air.
The water up north is cool enough so this will not be a major storm,
even if they take a hit but it doesn't take a major storm to affect a
lot of people. Sandy was just a strong tropical storm at landfall. A
day of "inch an hour" rain would flood places full of people who never
thought they could flood. That was what Agnes did to us in Clinton and
that was only about 6-8" of rain in a day. It just could not drain
away fast enough in upland communities.



Just woke up and we are still be hit with strong wind gusts and rain
squalls from Jose. Haven't checked the weather map yet be it obviously
hasn't moved much in three days.

As for hurricane tracking in general, it's still a guessing game but
there's also no question that the weather people have become much better
at forecasting a general track, given all the influences. I was
watching the Weather Channel the other day and they were talking about
the two prime computer models they use ... GFS and Euro. The Euro has
had a much better record of being accurate. One of them (forget which)
underwent a major update a year or so ago and it was noticed that the
update made the software more inaccurate than the original. They went
back to using the original.


The weather people don't seem to expect it to come any closer to us. They are predicting a week of sunny dry weather. If anyone believes that, I have two bridges here to sell them. Already the sun predicted for today had changed into cloud. I'll get out and paint anyway.

On Fri, 22 Sep 2017 05:29:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 9/21/2017 7:28 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:35:26 -0400,
wrote:

On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:09:52 -0400, wrote:

I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100%
going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over
us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the
eye wall hitting within minutes of being right.


===

The problem with forecasting the Irma track was getting the timing
right for the turn northward. Even a small error created a
substantial lateral shift because of the geometry.

That is always the issue. If these things just went on a straight
line, it would be easy to predict where they go ;-)

Jose has been about the screwiest one I have seen for a while and
Maria may be running through the same confused air.
The water up north is cool enough so this will not be a major storm,
even if they take a hit but it doesn't take a major storm to affect a
lot of people. Sandy was just a strong tropical storm at landfall. A
day of "inch an hour" rain would flood places full of people who never
thought they could flood. That was what Agnes did to us in Clinton and
that was only about 6-8" of rain in a day. It just could not drain
away fast enough in upland communities.



Just woke up and we are still be hit with strong wind gusts and rain
squalls from Jose. Haven't checked the weather map yet be it obviously
hasn't moved much in three days.

As for hurricane tracking in general, it's still a guessing game but
there's also no question that the weather people have become much better
at forecasting a general track, given all the influences. I was
watching the Weather Channel the other day and they were talking about
the two prime computer models they use ... GFS and Euro. The Euro has
had a much better record of being accurate. One of them (forget which)
underwent a major update a year or so ago and it was noticed that the
update made the software more inaccurate than the original. They went
back to using the original.


Hurricane tracking is a participation sport around here and I put a
lot of the tools on our community web site for our residents
(http://esteroriverheights.com/)