Election 2008: Republican Candidates Fare Better in Early Trial Heats

http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=17641


Public's view of John Kerry growing more negative


by Jeffrey M. Jones


GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Even though the next presidential election is more
than three years away, those who might pursue the office are already
testing the waters in New Hampshire, in Iowa, and at other gatherings
where party power brokers are present. The latest Gallup Poll assessed
the public's overall views of four possible contenders for the office
and tested how they would fare today in a hypothetical election.

A majority of Americans say they have favorable views of Republican and
former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton,
D-N.Y., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. On the other hand, more Americans
view Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., unfavorably than favorably, and his
ratings have grown more negative since his loss to George W. Bush in
last fall's presidential election. The trial heat matchups show the two
possible Republican candidates holding an edge over the two Democratic
candidates among registered voters.

Favorable Ratings of Contenders

The July 25-28 Gallup Poll asked Americans to rate four politicians
whom many currently consider the early front-runners in the next
presidential election. This is based in part on their relatively high
public profiles, on the belief that they are thought to be seriously
considering presidential runs in 2008, and also on early polling by
Gallup and other organizations on Republicans' and Democrats'
preferences for their respective parties' nominees in the next
election.

Of the four, Giuliani is rated most positively, with 64% of Americans
saying they have a favorable opinion of him and only 19% with an
unfavorable opinion. Clinton (53%) and McCain (51%) have similar
favorable ratings, although Clinton is the much better-known figure
(only 4% do not have an opinion of her, compared with 27% for McCain).
Clinton's unfavorable ratings (43%) are nearly twice as high as
McCain's (22%).



Kerry is the only candidate of the four with higher unfavorables (48%)
than favorables (42%). That is a significant shift from last fall, when
Kerry averaged a 52% favorable rating and a 44% unfavorable rating in
five October Gallup Polls leading up to the presidential election. At
least a majority of Americans had viewed Kerry favorably following his
surprise victory in the Iowa caucuses and continuing through Gallup's
final pre-election poll.



Trial Heat Matchups

The poll suggests the Republican candidates have an edge at this point,
with at least a slight lead in all four trial heats. Clinton appears to
be the stronger of the two Democratic candidates, while the two
Republican candidates fare similarly against both Democrats.

By a 50% to 45% margin, registered voters say they would vote for
McCain over Clinton. Giuliani enjoys the same edge over Clinton.

The Republicans do even better when matched up against Kerry; both lead
the Massachusetts senator by 54% to 41% margins among registered
voters.

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More info at:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=17641