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OT--Ping: To all who keep warning me of a housing bust in Naples
Deep-pocketed buyers steering Naples market clear of bust talk
By GINA EDWARDS September 18, 2005 When home prices hit the outer stratosphere, the number of potential buyers admittedly shrinks. But the Naples luxury market is still in boom mode, local agents say, despite forecasts of a housing bubble that some predict eventually must burst. A slowdown? "I just don't see it," said Bill Earls, an agent for John R. Wood, who specializes in ultra-high-end homes. Earls had a $20 million month in July and said, "I think I've topped that out in August." The $24.8 million Gordon Drive estate of billionaire Campbell Soup heiress Dorrance H. Hamilton flew off the market in less than a week when it was listed in May. That sent tongues wagging in real estate circles. The 7,000-square-foot beachfront house at 4444 Gordon Drive and its quick sale grabbed national headlines for John R. Wood Inc. listing agents Merry Coolidge and Bruce Babcock following the home's closing in July. Barbara Chur, whose husband made his fortune in nursing homes, bought the estate, which includes a separate guest house and Naples Bay frontage across Gordon Drive. The sale price wasn't a record for Naples, but the speed of the sale very well may have been. Agents say they had buyers lining up. "I had someone right behind them," says Prudential Florida WCI agent Jackie May, who specializes in Port Royal. The multiple listing service shows just more than 450 homes and lots on the market now priced at $2 million or more. Of those, close to 100 are priced at $5 million and more. Collier County Property Appraiser records show that more than 1,400 properties sold for more than $1 million from January through August. Surprisingly, local agents say there was no summer slowdown in the high-end market. But, although the luxury market is active, price appreciation appears to be slowing somewhat, agents say. Emily K. Bua, of Premier Properties, said she's not seeing as much appreciation in the $4 million to $10 million market as in the past. Bua said she doesn't see prices dropping, either. "There's tremendous appreciation in the under $2 million market," Bua said. Land values, as always, are dictating prices. Homes built in the '80s or '90s in Port Royal and Old Naples are mostly considered tear-downs now. "If they're not brand new, the houses are free," May said. "The ground has just appreciated so much." And the ground is especially rich if it's sand. Agents say prices for beachfront lots are fetching between $70,000 and $80,000 per foot of beachfront - thus adding between $10 million and $12 million for typical 150-foot-wide lots on Gordon Drive. Tearing down and building new gives buyers bigger homes, higher ceilings, and what Earls calls "the new sexy appliances." But what buyers want most is a beautiful view, agents say. "The bigger the view, the more it is," May said. Many high-end buyers are already here and they want more house or more water, May said. Some retired executives think they'll only spend a little time in Naples, but they end up staying here a lot, she said. Fundamentally, agents say demand from high net worth clients is strong. More and more newcomers are discovering the market, local agents say. They are top flight executives and increasingly they're hailing from the Northeast and out West - a departure from the traditional Midwestern crowd. Europeans, particularly from Germany and England, are coming in greater numbers, too. "There are a lot of people just discovering Naples," Bua said. Naples has had positive national press of late and its charity wine auction, the Naples Winter Wine Festival, attracts big spenders from all over the world. "I think the wine festival has brought a lot of attention to the Naples market," Bua said. What's most encouraging to Earls is this: "I'm seeing a good, healthy influx of new people," he said. "I think our market has broadened." Although the market appears flush with mega-mansions for sale, Earls said homes are turning over and sales are brisk. "I have 30 listings after selling $200 million (this year)," Earls said. Overall, he said, he's up 10 percent more than last year. One thing that gives Bua confidence in the health of the luxury market is it's not as prone to profiteering. "The market over $4 million or $5 million is end-users," Bua said. "The market under $2 million has a lot of investors in it." Agents typically define the luxury market in Naples as homes and condos valued at $4 million and more. There's a big range in between though. May estimates Port Royal's largest estate could be worth as much as $100 million. For now, Coolidge and Babcock - who sold the $24.8 million estate in less than a week - have bragging rights on speed of a mega-sale. The four-bedroom, 4½ bath estate home built by Newbury North Associates and designed by architect Jerry DeGennaro features dark wood paneling with tropical decor and such luxuries as an exercise and massage room off the master suite. Across Gordon Drive, a four-bedroom guest house and caretaker house front Naples Bay. "We had appointments one on top of the other," Coolidge said. "We were hardly even ready to show it to the market place." The top price for a home and property - $30 million paid in April 2001 for a beachfront and bay lot combination - still holds. High-end agents seem to be scrambling for the next record luxury sale. It could be a cell phone call away. http://naplesnews.com/npdn/news/arti...089510,00.html |
#2
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Mo
Naples-Marco market No. 1 for home price appreaciation By GINA EDWARDS September 18, 2005 Handicapping a real estate bubble has become a national obsession, if not a national pastime. And the Southwest Florida market is still grabbing the national spotlight. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight says the Naples-Marco Island metro area is No. 1 in the nation for home price appreciation for the second quarter ending June 30, compared with the same time last year. Single-family homes appreciated 35.6 percent during that time. The Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area ranks No. 9 in the country at 29.84 percent appreciation. Punta Gorda in Charlotte County ranks No. 12 on the list with homes appreciating 29.39 percent during the year. "We're not seeing any evidence whatsoever of prices topping out," said Andrew Leventis, an economist for the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Nationwide, homes appreciated 13.4 percent on average, according to the federal index. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Mansfield, Ohio, and Lafayette, Ind., had the lowest appreciation for the second quarter in the nation, both coming in at less than 1 percent. Overall, income levels and low interest rates are fueling home prices on a macro level, Leventis said. In Florida - and Naples in particular - demand from buyers appears strong. "We hear of demand being high for second homes there," Leventis said. Local agents say brisk sales in the luxury market appear to be boosting the area's median sales price, even as some sales in the lower end of the market have slowed. "The number of transactions on the high end has increased," said Joe Ballerino, owner of Amerivest Realty. Ballerino said the lower end of the Naples market - which he describes as properties at less than $750,000 - appears to be leveling off somewhat. The Florida Association of Realtors reported Naples' median single-family home price for July at $490,400, up 31 percent compared with July 2004. Closings in Collier County in August were up 24 percent compared with the same time last year, according to MLS data compiled by Amerivest Realty of Naples. Year to date, closings were 6,613 from January to August, compared with 6,494 for the same time last year. Another national group, the National Association of Realtors, reported in August that the Fort Myers-Cape Coral Metropolitan Statistical Area ranked second in the nation for median home price appreciation for the second quarter, with the median price up 45.2 percent from the same time a year ago to $266,800. NAR doesn't include the Naples area in its ranking. "NOYB" wrote in message k.net... Deep-pocketed buyers steering Naples market clear of bust talk By GINA EDWARDS September 18, 2005 When home prices hit the outer stratosphere, the number of potential buyers admittedly shrinks. But the Naples luxury market is still in boom mode, local agents say, despite forecasts of a housing bubble that some predict eventually must burst. A slowdown? "I just don't see it," said Bill Earls, an agent for John R. Wood, who specializes in ultra-high-end homes. Earls had a $20 million month in July and said, "I think I've topped that out in August." The $24.8 million Gordon Drive estate of billionaire Campbell Soup heiress Dorrance H. Hamilton flew off the market in less than a week when it was listed in May. That sent tongues wagging in real estate circles. The 7,000-square-foot beachfront house at 4444 Gordon Drive and its quick sale grabbed national headlines for John R. Wood Inc. listing agents Merry Coolidge and Bruce Babcock following the home's closing in July. Barbara Chur, whose husband made his fortune in nursing homes, bought the estate, which includes a separate guest house and Naples Bay frontage across Gordon Drive. The sale price wasn't a record for Naples, but the speed of the sale very well may have been. Agents say they had buyers lining up. "I had someone right behind them," says Prudential Florida WCI agent Jackie May, who specializes in Port Royal. The multiple listing service shows just more than 450 homes and lots on the market now priced at $2 million or more. Of those, close to 100 are priced at $5 million and more. Collier County Property Appraiser records show that more than 1,400 properties sold for more than $1 million from January through August. Surprisingly, local agents say there was no summer slowdown in the high-end market. But, although the luxury market is active, price appreciation appears to be slowing somewhat, agents say. Emily K. Bua, of Premier Properties, said she's not seeing as much appreciation in the $4 million to $10 million market as in the past. Bua said she doesn't see prices dropping, either. "There's tremendous appreciation in the under $2 million market," Bua said. Land values, as always, are dictating prices. Homes built in the '80s or '90s in Port Royal and Old Naples are mostly considered tear-downs now. "If they're not brand new, the houses are free," May said. "The ground has just appreciated so much." And the ground is especially rich if it's sand. Agents say prices for beachfront lots are fetching between $70,000 and $80,000 per foot of beachfront - thus adding between $10 million and $12 million for typical 150-foot-wide lots on Gordon Drive. Tearing down and building new gives buyers bigger homes, higher ceilings, and what Earls calls "the new sexy appliances." But what buyers want most is a beautiful view, agents say. "The bigger the view, the more it is," May said. Many high-end buyers are already here and they want more house or more water, May said. Some retired executives think they'll only spend a little time in Naples, but they end up staying here a lot, she said. Fundamentally, agents say demand from high net worth clients is strong. More and more newcomers are discovering the market, local agents say. They are top flight executives and increasingly they're hailing from the Northeast and out West - a departure from the traditional Midwestern crowd. Europeans, particularly from Germany and England, are coming in greater numbers, too. "There are a lot of people just discovering Naples," Bua said. Naples has had positive national press of late and its charity wine auction, the Naples Winter Wine Festival, attracts big spenders from all over the world. "I think the wine festival has brought a lot of attention to the Naples market," Bua said. What's most encouraging to Earls is this: "I'm seeing a good, healthy influx of new people," he said. "I think our market has broadened." Although the market appears flush with mega-mansions for sale, Earls said homes are turning over and sales are brisk. "I have 30 listings after selling $200 million (this year)," Earls said. Overall, he said, he's up 10 percent more than last year. One thing that gives Bua confidence in the health of the luxury market is it's not as prone to profiteering. "The market over $4 million or $5 million is end-users," Bua said. "The market under $2 million has a lot of investors in it." Agents typically define the luxury market in Naples as homes and condos valued at $4 million and more. There's a big range in between though. May estimates Port Royal's largest estate could be worth as much as $100 million. For now, Coolidge and Babcock - who sold the $24.8 million estate in less than a week - have bragging rights on speed of a mega-sale. The four-bedroom, 4½ bath estate home built by Newbury North Associates and designed by architect Jerry DeGennaro features dark wood paneling with tropical decor and such luxuries as an exercise and massage room off the master suite. Across Gordon Drive, a four-bedroom guest house and caretaker house front Naples Bay. "We had appointments one on top of the other," Coolidge said. "We were hardly even ready to show it to the market place." The top price for a home and property - $30 million paid in April 2001 for a beachfront and bay lot combination - still holds. High-end agents seem to be scrambling for the next record luxury sale. It could be a cell phone call away. http://naplesnews.com/npdn/news/arti...089510,00.html |
#3
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NYOB,
Harry and Kevin are the only ones who are upset that you have done so well with the housing market. They are jealous. -- Starbuck .... Arsonists of the world, ignite! "NOYB" wrote in message et... Mo Naples-Marco market No. 1 for home price appreaciation By GINA EDWARDS September 18, 2005 Handicapping a real estate bubble has become a national obsession, if not a national pastime. And the Southwest Florida market is still grabbing the national spotlight. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight says the Naples-Marco Island metro area is No. 1 in the nation for home price appreciation for the second quarter ending June 30, compared with the same time last year. Single-family homes appreciated 35.6 percent during that time. The Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro area ranks No. 9 in the country at 29.84 percent appreciation. Punta Gorda in Charlotte County ranks No. 12 on the list with homes appreciating 29.39 percent during the year. "We're not seeing any evidence whatsoever of prices topping out," said Andrew Leventis, an economist for the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Nationwide, homes appreciated 13.4 percent on average, according to the federal index. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Mansfield, Ohio, and Lafayette, Ind., had the lowest appreciation for the second quarter in the nation, both coming in at less than 1 percent. Overall, income levels and low interest rates are fueling home prices on a macro level, Leventis said. In Florida - and Naples in particular - demand from buyers appears strong. "We hear of demand being high for second homes there," Leventis said. Local agents say brisk sales in the luxury market appear to be boosting the area's median sales price, even as some sales in the lower end of the market have slowed. "The number of transactions on the high end has increased," said Joe Ballerino, owner of Amerivest Realty. Ballerino said the lower end of the Naples market - which he describes as properties at less than $750,000 - appears to be leveling off somewhat. The Florida Association of Realtors reported Naples' median single-family home price for July at $490,400, up 31 percent compared with July 2004. Closings in Collier County in August were up 24 percent compared with the same time last year, according to MLS data compiled by Amerivest Realty of Naples. Year to date, closings were 6,613 from January to August, compared with 6,494 for the same time last year. Another national group, the National Association of Realtors, reported in August that the Fort Myers-Cape Coral Metropolitan Statistical Area ranked second in the nation for median home price appreciation for the second quarter, with the median price up 45.2 percent from the same time a year ago to $266,800. NAR doesn't include the Naples area in its ranking. "NOYB" wrote in message k.net... Deep-pocketed buyers steering Naples market clear of bust talk By GINA EDWARDS September 18, 2005 When home prices hit the outer stratosphere, the number of potential buyers admittedly shrinks. But the Naples luxury market is still in boom mode, local agents say, despite forecasts of a housing bubble that some predict eventually must burst. A slowdown? "I just don't see it," said Bill Earls, an agent for John R. Wood, who specializes in ultra-high-end homes. Earls had a $20 million month in July and said, "I think I've topped that out in August." The $24.8 million Gordon Drive estate of billionaire Campbell Soup heiress Dorrance H. Hamilton flew off the market in less than a week when it was listed in May. That sent tongues wagging in real estate circles. The 7,000-square-foot beachfront house at 4444 Gordon Drive and its quick sale grabbed national headlines for John R. Wood Inc. listing agents Merry Coolidge and Bruce Babcock following the home's closing in July. Barbara Chur, whose husband made his fortune in nursing homes, bought the estate, which includes a separate guest house and Naples Bay frontage across Gordon Drive. The sale price wasn't a record for Naples, but the speed of the sale very well may have been. Agents say they had buyers lining up. "I had someone right behind them," says Prudential Florida WCI agent Jackie May, who specializes in Port Royal. The multiple listing service shows just more than 450 homes and lots on the market now priced at $2 million or more. Of those, close to 100 are priced at $5 million and more. Collier County Property Appraiser records show that more than 1,400 properties sold for more than $1 million from January through August. Surprisingly, local agents say there was no summer slowdown in the high-end market. But, although the luxury market is active, price appreciation appears to be slowing somewhat, agents say. Emily K. Bua, of Premier Properties, said she's not seeing as much appreciation in the $4 million to $10 million market as in the past. Bua said she doesn't see prices dropping, either. "There's tremendous appreciation in the under $2 million market," Bua said. Land values, as always, are dictating prices. Homes built in the '80s or '90s in Port Royal and Old Naples are mostly considered tear-downs now. "If they're not brand new, the houses are free," May said. "The ground has just appreciated so much." And the ground is especially rich if it's sand. Agents say prices for beachfront lots are fetching between $70,000 and $80,000 per foot of beachfront - thus adding between $10 million and $12 million for typical 150-foot-wide lots on Gordon Drive. Tearing down and building new gives buyers bigger homes, higher ceilings, and what Earls calls "the new sexy appliances." But what buyers want most is a beautiful view, agents say. "The bigger the view, the more it is," May said. Many high-end buyers are already here and they want more house or more water, May said. Some retired executives think they'll only spend a little time in Naples, but they end up staying here a lot, she said. Fundamentally, agents say demand from high net worth clients is strong. More and more newcomers are discovering the market, local agents say. They are top flight executives and increasingly they're hailing from the Northeast and out West - a departure from the traditional Midwestern crowd. Europeans, particularly from Germany and England, are coming in greater numbers, too. "There are a lot of people just discovering Naples," Bua said. Naples has had positive national press of late and its charity wine auction, the Naples Winter Wine Festival, attracts big spenders from all over the world. "I think the wine festival has brought a lot of attention to the Naples market," Bua said. What's most encouraging to Earls is this: "I'm seeing a good, healthy influx of new people," he said. "I think our market has broadened." Although the market appears flush with mega-mansions for sale, Earls said homes are turning over and sales are brisk. "I have 30 listings after selling $200 million (this year)," Earls said. Overall, he said, he's up 10 percent more than last year. One thing that gives Bua confidence in the health of the luxury market is it's not as prone to profiteering. "The market over $4 million or $5 million is end-users," Bua said. "The market under $2 million has a lot of investors in it." Agents typically define the luxury market in Naples as homes and condos valued at $4 million and more. There's a big range in between though. May estimates Port Royal's largest estate could be worth as much as $100 million. For now, Coolidge and Babcock - who sold the $24.8 million estate in less than a week - have bragging rights on speed of a mega-sale. The four-bedroom, 4½ bath estate home built by Newbury North Associates and designed by architect Jerry DeGennaro features dark wood paneling with tropical decor and such luxuries as an exercise and massage room off the master suite. Across Gordon Drive, a four-bedroom guest house and caretaker house front Naples Bay. "We had appointments one on top of the other," Coolidge said. "We were hardly even ready to show it to the market place." The top price for a home and property - $30 million paid in April 2001 for a beachfront and bay lot combination - still holds. High-end agents seem to be scrambling for the next record luxury sale. It could be a cell phone call away. http://naplesnews.com/npdn/news/arti...089510,00.html |
#4
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"Shortwave Sportfishing" wrote in message ... On Sun, 18 Sep 2005 17:42:30 GMT, "NOYB" wrote: When home prices hit the outer stratosphere, the number of potential buyers admittedly shrinks. But the Naples luxury market is still in boom mode, local agents say, despite forecasts of a housing bubble that some predict eventually must burst. A slowdown? You will get your turn and sooner than later. It's already starting up here in NE. I figure that once the NE slows, we'll soon follow. They'll be a slowdown, but never a correction. There are too many baby boomers looking to retire down here. The SW coast of Florida used to be mostly midwesterners. But the housing prices in the midwest aren't keeping pace with the prices down here. So we're seeing more buyers from the NE, the West, and overseas. |
#5
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"Starbuck" wrote in message ... NYOB, Harry and Kevin are the only ones who are upset that you have done so well with the housing market. They are jealous. Actually, it really seems to bother DSK the most. He has sent the most doomsday warnings my way...but he is followed closely by Gould. |
#6
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Harry,
You said you still owned a home in St. Augustine, and would move back there when you return to Fl. Did you forget that story also? -- Starbuck "You are accustomed to ostracism from childhood because you are overweight, deformed, stupid, or have an extremely short [deleted]." "Harry Krause" wrote in message ... NOYB wrote: "Starbuck" wrote in message ... NYOB, Harry and Kevin are the only ones who are upset that you have done so well with the housing market. They are jealous. Actually, it really seems to bother DSK the most. He has sent the most doomsday warnings my way...but he is followed closely by Gould. As usual, Smithers is wrong. I'm neither jealous nor upset about your paper gains. I simply don't have much use for your part of Florida from April through mid-November, and for the rest of the year, it is too dull and small-townish for my taste. I far prefer NE Florida, because it has actual seasons and a pretty mild winter, and, while it on occasion is walloped by storms, it happens with far less frequency than your area. If I move back to Florida full-time someday, it'll be between Daytona and the St. Mary's River. As for your housing investment, well, that's your business. Your mortgage is of a far riskier variety than I would want on my personal home. I also speculate in real estate, but not the way you do. -- - - - George W. Bush, our hero! I've been GASJACKED! |
#7
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"Starbuck" wrote:
Harry, You said you still owned a home in St. Augustine, and would move back there when you return to Fl. Did you forget that story also? No, I made that up. |
#8
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On Sun, 18 Sep 2005 18:07:34 +0000, NOYB wrote:
I figure that once the NE slows, we'll soon follow. They'll be a slowdown, but never a correction. There are too many baby boomers looking to retire down here. The SW coast of Florida used to be mostly midwesterners. But the housing prices in the midwest aren't keeping pace with the prices down here. So we're seeing more buyers from the NE, the West, and overseas. You bought your house for the right reasons, as a place to live and additionally, long term. I don't see you at risk, long term, but geez, "never a correction." All the warning signs are there. I read somewhere that speculators are a third of your market. You have people in the industry openly denying the bubble will burst. Guy, remember "bust" is part of the "boom and bust" cycle. It ain't an "if", it's a "when". |
#9
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NOYB wrote: "Starbuck" wrote in message ... NYOB, Harry and Kevin are the only ones who are upset that you have done so well with the housing market. They are jealous. Actually, it really seems to bother DSK the most. He has sent the most doomsday warnings my way...but he is followed closely by Gould. DSK doesn't have to work hard to beat my number of warnings; I sent you one. Get thou to Amazon.com and purchase a book: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Then sing along: All Around the Hurricane Zone Where wages are in trouble The housing prices rise and rise 'Til "pop" goes the bubble. You know, NOYB, at one time I was under the impression you had a couple of bucks or so. People with money don't launch a thread to to announce "look how well I'm doing financially." Besides, how many houses do you own in Naples. One? Que lastima, Doc. That's not an investment- (unless you decide to go pitch a tent down on the beach and rent it out). If you sell it for $99999999999999.00, you'll surely have to spend at least as much to buy another. You're no richer, and no poorer than if your house were worth $29,000.....you still need a place to live. Until you don't need a place to live, you can't extract a dime. |
#10
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On Sun, 18 Sep 2005 23:18:09 -0400, thunder
wrote: All the warning signs are there. I read somewhere that speculators are a third of your market. You have people in the industry openly denying the bubble will burst. Guy, remember "bust" is part of the "boom and bust" cycle. It ain't an "if", it's a "when". Unless, of course, hyper-inflation makes current housing prices seem like a bargain in a few years. I find it interesting to hear all the talking heads saying there's no real problem with inflation. From my perspective there's been tremendous inflation over the last few years, yet the "official" rate of inflation is mild. I think what's happening in gold is a good sign of what's about to happen in our economy. If you can make a dollar worth $.20, paying off all the dept and entitlement won't hurt the wealthy folks who control the country nearly as much. bb |
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