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Default When Bush took office...

Gene Kearns wrote:
On Sat, 10 Nov 2007 22:17:04 -0500, BAR penned the following well
considered thoughts to the readers of rec.boats:

HK wrote:
...gasoline was $1.46 a gallon.

And oil was $25 a barrel.


Man..... listen to that reel scream!


That is exactly what I thought. It is a feeding frenzy, everyone
fighting to take the bait.

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Default When Bush took office...

On Nov 10, 10:26 pm, " JimH" ask wrote:
"HK" wrote in message

. ..

...gasoline was $1.46 a gallon.


And the highest gasoline prices were under the leadership of Carter.

And your point is?


Wrong again!

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Default When Bush took office...

On Nov 11, 9:24 am, wrote:
On Nov 11, 8:55 am, HK wrote:





JimH wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...
JimH wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
news JimH wrote:
"Wayne.B" wrote in message
om...
On Sat, 10 Nov 2007 22:49:44 -0500, " JimH" ask wrote:


Explain how the "Republicans" caused the increase in gasoline prices.
That's easy:


- The Iraq war


- Huge federal defecits


- Weak dollar


- Poor energy policies


- Huge trade imbalance


They are all intertwined with high energy prices in various ways.


And of course the Republicans are the cause of all of them.......eh?
Nice try Wayne.
Yeah, they are.


Remind me again who has control of Congress.
At the moment, no one. The Dems do not yet have a working majority.


Nice try but no cigar for you.


I don't smoke, but my statement is correct. If the Dems had "control" of
Congress, they would have the votes within their party to override a
presidential veto. That's what control means when the other party
controls the white house.- Hide quoted text -


- Show quoted text -


Bull****. the only bills that he has vetoed were nothing to do with
our economy, cept to drown it with a huge socialized medical spending
bill for the limosine liberals and illegals... They have not even
tried to put up any appropriations bills or any other energy bills
either, they are just concerened with power and earmark spending...- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


Is that you, Rush Hannity?

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Default When Bush took office...


"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
...
wrote in message
ups.com...
On Nov 11, 8:55 am, HK wrote:
JimH wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
...
JimH wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
news JimH wrote:
"Wayne.B" wrote in message
om...
On Sat, 10 Nov 2007 22:49:44 -0500, " JimH" ask
wrote:

Explain how the "Republicans" caused the increase in
gasoline prices.
That's easy:

- The Iraq war

- Huge federal defecits

- Weak dollar

- Poor energy policies

- Huge trade imbalance

They are all intertwined with high energy prices in various
ways.

And of course the Republicans are the cause of all of
them.......eh?
Nice try Wayne.
Yeah, they are.

Remind me again who has control of Congress.
At the moment, no one. The Dems do not yet have a working
majority.

Nice try but no cigar for you.

I don't smoke, but my statement is correct. If the Dems had
"control" of
Congress, they would have the votes within their party to override a
presidential veto. That's what control means when the other party
controls the white house.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


Bull****. the only bills that he has vetoed were nothing to do with
our economy, cept to drown it with a huge socialized medical spending
bill for the limosine liberals and illegals... They have not even
tried to put up any appropriations bills or any other energy bills
either, they are just concerened with power and earmark spending...


There is already a socialized medicine program whose existence you
approve of, and might even admire. If I told you that I had the power
to end this program and that I intended to do so, you'd say nasty
things about me.

Guess what this program is.


And when the Dems gain control, all will be sweetness and light. Ha!




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Default When Bush took office...

On Sun, 11 Nov 2007 15:05:18 GMT, "Canuck57"
wrote:

"Wayne.B" wrote in message
.. .
On Sat, 10 Nov 2007 22:49:44 -0500, " JimH" ask wrote:

Explain how the "Republicans" caused the increase in gasoline prices.


That's easy:

- The Iraq war
- Huge federal defecits
- Weak dollar
- Poor energy policies
- Huge trade imbalance

They are all intertwined with high energy prices in various ways.


Well put. And to pay for it the fed "created" too much money diluting the
greenback. Supply and demand. Oversupply of currency and far too low
interest rates generally mean lower value of the currency itself.

But I think most of us didn't anticipate the size and speed of the
devaluation of the USD. As this moves through the supply chain it is going
to drive a mean kick on inflation and probably interest rates too.

Sub-prime for example. Who wants risky debt, liquidity issues for an
interest rate below inflation? But if they jumped rates to 12+% the cash
would come. Rates are artificially low. That is why there is a crunch.

Most people should think of paper currency just like stock. And devaluation
depreciates the stock it is going to take more stock to buy the same other
item as it did before. You feel it first with gasoline as inventories are
short. The real value of oil has not changed that much in a year.


The issue with the Fed and low interest rates is more complicated,
dating back to the "dot.com" stock market bust and the desire to avoid
a recession. The fact that rates were maintained too low for too long
led to the real estate bubble and created the demand for sub prime,
high risk lending. Yes, actually created the demand by stimulating
the so called "carry trade". The carry trade is Wall Street's name
for borrowing money at low interest in a venue like Japan, and
investing it at high interest rates somewhere else. It's a can't lose
proposition in a stable investment climate, limited only by your
ability to borrow large amounts of money and safely reinvest it. Since
Japan had virtually unlimited amounts of money to lend, the ability to
reinvest was the primary limitation. Banks and other lending
institutions in the US had already found it profitable to bundle up
various kinds of debt obligations and resell them as bonds to
institutional investors. They were percieved as low risk, high yield
investments and were very popular. They were also very profitable for
the banks who were packaging the loans and selling them off. There
is only so much high quality debt available for repackaging however so
that sparked the sub-prime high risk lending business to create more
opportunities for selling bonds. Like all things the reality is even
more complicated, but that is the one paragraph view from 30,000 feet.
  #27   Report Post  
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Default When Bush took office...

BAR wrote:
HK wrote:

...gasoline was $1.46 a gallon.



And oil was $25 a barrel.

And there was a lot less war in the world.

He campaigned on not doing nation building and humility in foreign policy.
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Default When Bush took office...


"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
news
"Canuck57" wrote in message
news:EzEZi.200735$1y4.155047@pd7urf2no...

"JoeSpareBedroom" wrote in message
...
"Tim" wrote in message
ps.com...
On Nov 10, 9:49 pm, " JimH" ask wrote:
"HK" wrote in message

. ..

JimH wrote:
"HK" wrote in message
m...
...gasoline was $1.46 a gallon.

And the highest gasoline prices were under the leadership of
Carter.

And your point is?

Just another data point with which to bury Republicans next year.

Explain how the "Republicans" caused the increase in gasoline prices.

Why would gasoline prices be different today if a Democrat were in
office?

Well I'm not worried about it. Pres. Hillary Obama will get it right
back down to a "buck forty-nine" in just six months, and will have
exec. reps on a rope just like a stringer fll of blue gills.

Nobody will get the price down until we eliminate oil speculation by
investors who have absolutely no connection with the oil business.


Most of the increases in gasoline prices for the last year are due to the
devaluation of the greenback, not in any real way has the value of a
barrel of oil changed.

It is opposite thinking from what politicians preach. A paper currency
is just like stock. It goes up when people want it, and down when people
don't want it. Just like commodities, currency fluxuates in value.

If the US fed raised interest rates and tightened up the money supply the
dollar would have more value. Does not congress work with the Fed on
such maters?

Combine this with sub-prime mortgages and asset backed paper liquidity
problems....

It is more accurate to think of the barrel of oil value being constant
and the currency has lost value. If you had 100% of your investments in
a stable currency last year, they would have gone up 20% against the USD
not including interest.

Blame government monetary policy.



All true, but I stand by my original comment. Oil is one commodity which
should be untouchable by recreational speculators. I'm talking illegal, go
to jail, that sort of thing. You know I'm right.


It is easy then other than how do I carry a $100 barrel of oil around? That
is peg the currency to 1 exact barrel of oil and not the Fed's or
Congressional view of it. But for this to work, if I tender $100 you have
to give me my exact 1 barrel of oil. Something the government and the fed
will not do. That is, back the currency in real constant value.

I knew when Greenspan retired the greed of Fed/banks would in time screw it
up. My bet paid off handsomely. One must look at paper currency as stock
that generally devaluates due to government over spending and big banking
policies.

Oil is just like black gold. Gold too has the same curve against the USD.
So has copper. I don't follow silver but suspect it to has too. Blame the
"oil" companies is a farce, a political excuse to focus people away from the
real issues.

And the spread between currency devaluation and fixed value commodities
suggests interest rates should be in the order of 10-12%. Which of course
they are not. Because the Fed is still creating money to address the
liquidity crunch this creates. A real down stream inflation generator.

It is also why I keep little cash. Cash ultimately depreciates to the
bank/governments favor. I keep a 4-5 month inventory of cash in case I get
laid off but after that it is into something more tangible.

Most often think of cash as a constant value, how wrong these people are.
It is generally best viewed as a depreciable asset. Where as an ounce of
gold or barrel of oil will have the same NPV in 30 years.

The bad part is I don't see the Fed/Congress doing a thing about it. I wish
they would. As I expect this to continue. Want to make more on the turn
around, looking for the bottom.

All because I like fishing and not rich enough to retire to do it full time.


  #29   Report Post  
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Default When Bush took office...

Jim wrote:
BAR wrote:
HK wrote:

...gasoline was $1.46 a gallon.



And oil was $25 a barrel.

And there was a lot less war in the world.

He campaigned on not doing nation building and humility in foreign policy.

\


Well, one thing for su Bush hasn't succeeded in his attempts to
nation-build.
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Default When Bush took office...

On Sun, 11 Nov 2007 14:46:45 GMT, "JoeSpareBedroom"
wrote:

All true, but I stand by my original comment. Oil is one commodity which
should be untouchable by recreational speculators. I'm talking illegal, go
to jail, that sort of thing. You know I'm right.


There are no "recreational speculators". Everyone who trades
commodity futures is doing it for business reasons of one sort or
another. You may not agree that all of their reasons are valid but
the commodity futures market is absolutely essential both to the
producers and consumers of any given commodity. The markets
themselves help to dampen out large daily price swings by evening out
supply and demand over time, and so called speculators are part of
that process - just like the stock market. It would be more accurate
to call them short term investors.
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