While Gustav is running around south of Cuba, I checked some of the
modeling data - looks like over the next two weeks, we're looking at a
lot of activity in the tropics - like an explosion of tropical
depressions and storms. Nothing horrible except for one anomaly.

Several of the modeling computations are predicting a "super storm"
for the mid-Atlantic somewhere around Sept. 5th to the 8th. The
modeling is seeing something develop off Africa around the 2nd, then
develop rapidly curving NW towards Bermuda, then NE passing close to
the Canadian Maritimes. This is a fairly normal early/late season
track, but the kicker is this beastie is predicted to be 1,000 miles
wide and Cat 5+ intensity.

There have been similar predictions in the past and the probability is
still low for the storm to develop to this level, but the key factors
of upper level wind shear has diminished significantly and the warm
water energy transfer predictions have increased.

Secondarily, there is some thought that this could be the long
anticipated "East Coast" hit which is well over due historically.

Should be a very interesting couple of weeks for weather geeks.

Where are you seeing these models? Got a link? Just curious that's all, as
I'm interested. I used to follow that stuff whan I was an "east coaster"
many moons ago. Back then, the models were mere approximations. The computer
I'm using now is probably more powerful than the ones they used back then
(70's).

Here on the west coast, the weather is BORING. Sunny, warm, clear skies, 6-8
months of the year. Cooler, *maybe* some rain 4-6 months of the year. I'm
not complaining mind you... I love to visit the east coast... just would
never live there again. :-)

Cool! Sox just beat the Yanks!

--Mike

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
While Gustav is running around south of Cuba, I checked some of the
modeling data - looks like over the next two weeks, we're looking at a
lot of activity in the tropics - like an explosion of tropical
depressions and storms. Nothing horrible except for one anomaly.

Several of the modeling computations are predicting a "super storm"
for the mid-Atlantic somewhere around Sept. 5th to the 8th. The
modeling is seeing something develop off Africa around the 2nd, then
develop rapidly curving NW towards Bermuda, then NE passing close to
the Canadian Maritimes. This is a fairly normal early/late season
track, but the kicker is this beastie is predicted to be 1,000 miles
wide and Cat 5+ intensity.

There have been similar predictions in the past and the probability is
still low for the storm to develop to this level, but the key factors
of upper level wind shear has diminished significantly and the warm
water energy transfer predictions have increased.

Secondarily, there is some thought that this could be the long
anticipated "East Coast" hit which is well over due historically.

Should be a very interesting couple of weeks for weather geeks.

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
While Gustav is running around south of Cuba, I checked some of the
modeling data - looks like over the next two weeks, we're looking at a
lot of activity in the tropics - like an explosion of tropical
depressions and storms. Nothing horrible except for one anomaly.

Several of the modeling computations are predicting a "super storm"
for the mid-Atlantic somewhere around Sept. 5th to the 8th. The
modeling is seeing something develop off Africa around the 2nd, then
develop rapidly curving NW towards Bermuda, then NE passing close to
the Canadian Maritimes. This is a fairly normal early/late season
track, but the kicker is this beastie is predicted to be 1,000 miles
wide and Cat 5+ intensity.

There have been similar predictions in the past and the probability is
still low for the storm to develop to this level, but the key factors
of upper level wind shear has diminished significantly and the warm
water energy transfer predictions have increased.

Secondarily, there is some thought that this could be the long
anticipated "East Coast" hit which is well over due historically.

Should be a very interesting couple of weeks for weather geeks.

Well, our guys tell us that the water is warmer than usual...somewhat like
2003 when Hurricane Juan, a cat 2 storm smashed us.
The water is unbelievably nice...even on the beaches that are usually cold.

On Wed, 27 Aug 2008 02:17:46 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

While Gustav is running around south of Cuba, I checked some of the
modeling data - looks like over the next two weeks, we're looking at a
lot of activity in the tropics - like an explosion of tropical
depressions and storms. Nothing horrible except for one anomaly.

Several of the modeling computations are predicting a "super storm"
for the mid-Atlantic somewhere around Sept. 5th to the 8th. The
modeling is seeing something develop off Africa around the 2nd, then
develop rapidly curving NW towards Bermuda, then NE passing close to
the Canadian Maritimes. This is a fairly normal early/late season
track, but the kicker is this beastie is predicted to be 1,000 miles
wide and Cat 5+ intensity.

There have been similar predictions in the past and the probability is
still low for the storm to develop to this level, but the key factors
of upper level wind shear has diminished significantly and the warm
water energy transfer predictions have increased.

Secondarily, there is some thought that this could be the long
anticipated "East Coast" hit which is well over due historically.

Should be a very interesting couple of weeks for weather geeks.

All I want is an inch or two on my grass.

And, of course, whatever anyone else wants. I don't want to get lambasted
with stupid, scurrilous, selfishness accusations!
--
John *H*

On Tue, 26 Aug 2008 19:30:36 -0700, "Mike" wrote:

Where are you seeing these models? Got a link?

These are experimental models via UCONN, but they've been remarkably
stable for the past couple of years.

I'll call today and get you a user name and password. Look for an
email sometime this evening.

"John H." salmonremovebait@gmaildotcom wrote in message
...
On Wed, 27 Aug 2008 02:17:46 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

While Gustav is running around south of Cuba, I checked some of the
modeling data - looks like over the next two weeks, we're looking at a
lot of activity in the tropics - like an explosion of tropical
depressions and storms. Nothing horrible except for one anomaly.

Several of the modeling computations are predicting a "super storm"
for the mid-Atlantic somewhere around Sept. 5th to the 8th. The
modeling is seeing something develop off Africa around the 2nd, then
develop rapidly curving NW towards Bermuda, then NE passing close to
the Canadian Maritimes. This is a fairly normal early/late season
track, but the kicker is this beastie is predicted to be 1,000 miles
wide and Cat 5+ intensity.

There have been similar predictions in the past and the probability is
still low for the storm to develop to this level, but the key factors
of upper level wind shear has diminished significantly and the warm
water energy transfer predictions have increased.

Secondarily, there is some thought that this could be the long
anticipated "East Coast" hit which is well over due historically.

Should be a very interesting couple of weeks for weather geeks.

All I want is an inch or two on my grass.

And, of course, whatever anyone else wants. I don't want to get lambasted
with stupid, scurrilous, selfishness accusations!
--
John *H*

whether you deserve them or not..eh?

On Wed, 27 Aug 2008 02:17:46 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:


While Gustav is running around south of Cuba, I checked some of the
modeling data - looks like over the next two weeks, we're looking at a
lot of activity in the tropics - like an explosion of tropical
depressions and storms. Nothing horrible except for one anomaly.


This will be interesting.

Yesterday, my older son and his wife closed on a waterfront "beach house"
about 2 miles north of the east end of the Cape Cod Canal. His backyard
overlooks that end of Cape Cod Bay and the view is more than spectacular.

I spent the day helping him move some furniture, etc. following the official
closing. Spent the night as well, setting up stuff and preparing for
today's delivery of the rest of the new furnishings. We watched as a USCG
helicopter monitored a boat in trouble about 5 miles offshore, while a
surface vessel came to their aid. This was all at about 9 pm. Also
watched recreational and commercial traffic exiting and entering the Canal.

Anyway, I was explaining to him what "fetch" was, prevailing winds and the
effects of a strong offshore storm will have on the ocean behind his house.
If your forecast is true, he's about to find out.

Their house is something I'd move into in a nanosecond. Small, but
adequate, but with an absolutely spectacular view.

Here's a pic of him and I in his backyard yesterday, taking a break from
furniture moving to enjoy the view and a brew:

http://www.eisboch.com/beachhouse.jpg

He's going to check into the possibilities of putting a mooring in just
offshore. If he can, it's a short trip by boat from Kingman up through the
Canal, and over to his place. Moor up, launch the inflatable and come
ashore. I could always anchor, but I'd feel better with a mooring. North
and North East winds can blow hard in that spot and generate some big waves.

Eisboch

Friggin gorgeous! I miss the Cape.

--Mike

"Eisboch" wrote in message
...

On Wed, 27 Aug 2008 02:17:46 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:


While Gustav is running around south of Cuba, I checked some of the
modeling data - looks like over the next two weeks, we're looking at a
lot of activity in the tropics - like an explosion of tropical
depressions and storms. Nothing horrible except for one anomaly.


This will be interesting.

Yesterday, my older son and his wife closed on a waterfront "beach house"
about 2 miles north of the east end of the Cape Cod Canal. His backyard
overlooks that end of Cape Cod Bay and the view is more than spectacular.

I spent the day helping him move some furniture, etc. following the
official closing. Spent the night as well, setting up stuff and preparing
for today's delivery of the rest of the new furnishings. We watched as a
USCG helicopter monitored a boat in trouble about 5 miles offshore, while
a surface vessel came to their aid. This was all at about 9 pm. Also
watched recreational and commercial traffic exiting and entering the
Canal.

Anyway, I was explaining to him what "fetch" was, prevailing winds and the
effects of a strong offshore storm will have on the ocean behind his
house. If your forecast is true, he's about to find out.

Their house is something I'd move into in a nanosecond. Small, but
adequate, but with an absolutely spectacular view.

Here's a pic of him and I in his backyard yesterday, taking a break from
furniture moving to enjoy the view and a brew:

http://www.eisboch.com/beachhouse.jpg

He's going to check into the possibilities of putting a mooring in just
offshore. If he can, it's a short trip by boat from Kingman up through
the Canal, and over to his place. Moor up, launch the inflatable and come
ashore. I could always anchor, but I'd feel better with a mooring.
North and North East winds can blow hard in that spot and generate some
big waves.

Eisboch

"Eisboch" wrote in message
...


Here's a pic of him and I in his backyard yesterday, taking a break from
furniture moving to enjoy the view and a brew:

http://www.eisboch.com/beachhouse.jpg


That is one hell of a backyard.

Earl of Warwich, Duke of Cornwall, Marquies of Anglesea, Sir Reginald P.
Smithers III Esq. LLC, STP. wrote:


"Eisboch" wrote in message
...


Here's a pic of him and I in his backyard yesterday, taking a break
from furniture moving to enjoy the view and a brew:

http://www.eisboch.com/beachhouse.jpg


That is one hell of a backyard.

PS - You wife took a nice photo of you two sharing a moment.